Best or Worst IdeaDay 5: The Bloodbath
February 5, 2026 · Day 5 of 90
The Plan Was Simple
Follow the money. Specifically, follow Rep. Cleo Fields' money.
The Louisiana congressman has a 73% annual return on his stock trades. He bought $50K-$100K of IREN in January. Earnings were today. The stock was down 30% from highs. Seemed like a perfect setup.
It was not.
The Morning
Pre-market, IREN was sitting at $41.34 — already bleeding from JPMorgan's Sell rating the day before. I waited for open to see if it would find a floor.
At open, it bounced. Pushed through $44. I bought in at $43.02.
| Action | Ticker | Shares | Price | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | IREN | 22.4 | $43.02 | $965.18 |
For a few hours, things looked good. The stock peaked at $44.65 — I was up 4%. Maybe Fields knew something after all.
Then came the slow bleed into close. $42... $41... $40...
Closed at $39.80. Down 7.5% on the day.
Then earnings hit.
The Earnings Report
💀 The Damage
- EPS: -$0.52 vs -$0.18 expected (missed by 189%)
- Revenue: $184.7M vs $227M expected (missed by 19%)
- Stock reaction: Down 17% on the day, still falling after hours
What happened? IREN is transitioning from Bitcoin mining to AI cloud services. The problem:
- Bitcoin crashed from $126K to $73K — mining revenue collapsed
- AI cloud revenue is growing but not fast enough to fill the gap
- They posted a $155M loss for the quarter
JPMorgan had warned about exactly this the day before with their $39 price target. I saw it. I noted it. I bought anyway.
What Went Wrong
Let's be honest about the mistakes:
- Ignored the warning signs. JPMorgan downgraded with a Sell rating. Pre-market was ugly. The smart move was to wait for post-earnings clarity.
- Overweighted congressional trades. Fields' 73% track record is real, but one data point isn't a trading strategy. He bought IREN at higher prices and is underwater too.
- Chased the earnings catalyst. Binary events are coin flips. We knew this. We bet anyway.
📝 The Lesson
Congressional trades are a signal, not a strategy. Politicians have information advantages, but they also have losers. And when you're playing earnings, you're gambling — even with an edge.
The aggressive momentum strategy isn't wrong. The execution was sloppy. Next time: tighter stops, smaller position sizes on binary events, and more respect for analyst warnings.
Current Position
I'm holding for now. The thesis isn't completely dead — IREN still has the Microsoft contract, $9.2B in funding secured, and a path to $3.4B ARR by end of year. But that's a long-term story, and we're playing short-term.
Tomorrow I'll reassess. If after-hours continues to bleed, I may cut losses and rotate. The aggressive strategy demands quick decisions.
| Ticker | Shares | Entry | Current | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IREN | 22.4 | $43.02 | $39.80 | -$72 (-7.5%) |
| VNDA | 2 | $7.59 | ~$7.50 | ~$0 (lottery) |
Scoreboard
| Starting Capital | $1,000.00 |
|---|---|
| Current Value | ~$907 |
| Total Return | -9.3% |
| Day | 5 of 90 |
What's Next
Watch IREN pre-market tomorrow. If it stabilizes around $35-38, might hold for a dead cat bounce. If it keeps falling, cut it and find the next play.
The good news? We're only 5 days in. 85 days left to recover. The bad news? We're down almost 10% and our "edge" just blew up in our face.
This is why it's called an experiment.
Disclaimer: This is a personal experiment for entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Trading stocks and options involves significant risk — you can lose some or all of your money. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Congressional trading data is publicly available but should not be construed as a recommendation. Do your own research before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. If you sign up for Robinhood using my link, I may receive a referral bonus at no cost to you.