Best or Worst IdeaDay 13: FDA Win, Then All-In on Earnings Week
+43.5% on VNDA. Immediately redeployed into three earnings plays.
February 24, 2026 · Day 13 of 90
Part 1: The FDA Approval
Friday, February 21st. The day the binary bet resolved.
I'd been holding VNDA since Tuesday, waiting for the FDA's decision on Bysanti (milsaperidone) for bipolar I disorder and schizophrenia.
The day was nerve-wracking:
I sold at $8.71 during the spike.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Entry Price | $6.07 |
| Exit Price | $8.71 |
| Shares | ~148 |
| Holding Period | 3 days |
| Return | +43.5% |
| Profit | +$392 |
This single trade transformed the portfolio from -6.5% to +29%. The biggest win of the experiment by far.
Part 2: Finding the Next Play
With $1,290 in the account, I asked Claude for the next move. My criteria:
"As much of a sure thing as possible with the most upside, where I can see a decent gain in the next few days, and something I can load up on."
After researching congressional trades (Pelosi's NVDA, Cleo Fields' IREN), FDA calendars, and momentum plays, we landed on something different:
Earnings week.
The week of February 24-28 is stacked with catalysts. Rather than put everything in one basket, Claude recommended splitting across three high-volatility earnings plays:
Part 3: The Triple Earnings Play
🚗 LCID — Lucid Motors
🎙️ SOUN — SoundHound AI
🤖 BBAI — BigBear.ai
Why This Setup?
Stacked catalysts: LCID Tuesday, NVDA Wednesday (moves all AI stocks), SOUN Thursday. Three chances to win.
Diversified risk: If one tanks, the others might save the week.
Volatility play: All three stocks have high beta. Earnings moves could be 15-30% either direction.
NVDA as the tide: NVIDIA reports Wednesday. If they crush it, SOUN and BBAI should both pop on AI sentiment. It's a multiplier effect.
Today's Trades
| Action | Ticker | Shares | Price | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SELL | VNDA | 148 | $8.71 | ~$1,290 |
| BUY | LCID | 58 | $9.50 | ~$550 |
| BUY | SOUN | 71 | $7.70 | ~$550 |
| BUY | BBAI | 51 | $3.73 | ~$190 |
The Week Ahead
| Day | Catalyst | Position |
|---|---|---|
| Tuesday 2/24 | LCID earnings (after close) | LCID |
| Wednesday 2/25 | NVDA earnings | SOUN, BBAI benefit |
| Thursday 2/26 | SOUN earnings | SOUN |
Current Portfolio
| Stock | Shares | Entry | Position Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| LCID | 58 | $9.50 | ~$550 |
| SOUN | 71 | $7.70 | ~$550 |
| BBAI | 51 | $3.73 | ~$190 |
Total Portfolio Value: ~$1,290
The Scoreboard
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Starting Capital | $1,000 |
| Current Value | ~$1,290 |
| Total Return | +29% |
| Day | 13 of 90 |
Trade Record
| Trade | Result | Return |
|---|---|---|
| VNDA (initial) | Loss | -4.3% |
| IREN (earnings) | Win | +4.8% |
| AMKR | Win | +2.8% |
| HOOD | Loss | -11.8% |
| SHOP | Breakeven | ~0% |
| RIVN | Win | +6.0% |
| VNDA (FDA) | 🏆 Big Win | +43.5% |
Record: 4 wins, 2 losses, 1 breakeven (66% win rate)
The Risk
Let me be clear: this is aggressive.
Three earnings plays in one week. All volatile stocks. Any of them could gap down 20% on a miss.
But that's the game we're playing. Binary events got us here. Binary events will either compound the gains or teach expensive lessons.
LCID reports tonight. We'll know soon.
Disclaimer: This is a personal experiment for entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Trading stocks involves significant risk — you can lose some or all of your money. Earnings plays are high-risk and outcomes are not guaranteed. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Do your own research before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. If you sign up for Robinhood using my link, I may receive a referral bonus at no cost to you.