Best or Worst IdeaDay 11: The Scalp & The Strategy
February 13, 2026 · Day 11 of 90
Done With SHOP
Remember SHOP? The stock that beat earnings, guided for 30% growth, and then proceeded to get manipulated into oblivion for three straight days?
I'm done with it.
The pattern repeated again this morning — pre-market pump, dump at open, grind in a tight range. But today was a "mini dump." The algos seem scared to push it below $109 but also won't let it run up.
Time to move on. I need momentum, not a staring contest with high-frequency traders.
The RIVN Scalp
Asked Claude to find me something running with momentum. Something cheap so I could buy a lot of shares.
The answer was already in front of me: Rivian (RIVN), up 24% on the day after crushing earnings.
🚗 RIVN Thesis
- Earnings beat — smaller loss than expected
- Delivery guidance: 62,000-67,000 vehicles in 2026 (47-59% jump)
- R2 SUV launching Q2 2026 — their mass-market play at $45,000
- Deutsche Bank upgrade to Buy (same day)
- Price: ~$17 — cheap enough to load up
Got in at $16.88. Watched it climb through the afternoon. Sold at $17.90.
✅ RIVN Trade
- Entry: $16.88
- Exit: $17.90
- Shares: ~51
- Gain: +$52 (+6.0%)
- Hold time: ~4 hours
A clean same-day scalp. In and out. No overnight risk. No algo games. Just momentum.
The New Strategy: Following Congress
While waiting for RIVN to do its thing, I asked Claude to research something I've been thinking about: which members of Congress have the best stock trading track records?
The results were... illuminating.
🕵️ Congressional Trading Power Rankings
Based on 2024-2025 performance and "suspicious timing":
The Top Performers
| Member | 2025 Return | Win Rate | Notable Pattern |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rep. Warren Davidson | +78.8% | — | GE, GE Vernova plays |
| Rep. Donald Norcross | +70.8% | — | Just 2 stocks: Cigna, TD Bank |
| Rep. Terri Sewell | +67.9% | — | NVDA buy April 2025 |
| Nancy Pelosi | +20.1% | 83% | +177% total return, NVDA/AMZN timing |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | +11.7% | 74.5% | +476% since joining Congress |
The Ones I'm Following
After the research, three members stood out for our strategy:
Sen. Markwayne Mullin — We already made money on his AMKR pick (+2.8%). He sits on Armed Services and just disclosed buying 10 stocks on January 5, 2026, including some obscure defense contractors.
Rep. Cleo Fields — We made +4.8% on his IREN pick. He's been loading up on tech: GOOG, META, TSM, NFLX.
Nancy Pelosi — 83% win rate speaks for itself. Her January 2026 plays include NVDA, AMZN, GOOGL with January 2027 call options.
The Plan
Starting next week, we're piggybacking on congressional trades. These people have access to briefings, lobbyists, and information we don't. If you can't beat them, follow them.
📚 Mullin's Fresh Jan 5, 2026 Buys
- LRN (Stride) — Education, +29% last time he bought
- AMKR (Amkor) — We already won on this one
- VSEC (VSE Corp) — Defense contractor, Armed Services flag
- CRS (Carpenter Technology) — Specialty metals
- MPWR (Monolithic Power) — Semiconductors
- DE (Deere) — Agriculture/industrial
I'll be researching these over the weekend for Monday's play.
Trade Log
| Trade | Entry | Exit | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| VNDA | $7.82 | $7.60 | -4.3% |
| IREN | $43.02 | $45.09 | +4.8% |
| AMKR | $51.37 | $52.83 | +2.8% |
| HOOD | $86.12 | $76.00 | -11.8% |
| SHOP | $117.69 | ~$110 | -6.5% |
| RIVN | $16.88 | $17.90 | +6.0% |
Current Portfolio
| Asset | Value |
|---|---|
| Cash | ~$912 |
| VNDA (2 shares) | ~$15 |
Scoreboard
| Starting Capital | $1,000.00 |
|---|---|
| Current Value | ~$927 |
| Total Return | -7.3% |
| Day | 10 of 90 |
Lessons Learned
📚 Day 11 Takeaways
- Know when to cut bait: SHOP wasn't working. Move on.
- Scalping works: 6% in 4 hours beats holding overnight risk.
- Cheap stocks = more shares = more upside: 51 shares of RIVN moving $1 = $51 profit.
- Congressional trades have edge: 83% win rate (Pelosi), +78% returns (Davidson) — these aren't normal.
- If you can't beat them, follow them: New strategy for next week.
What's Next
Weekend research on Mullin's January picks. Looking for the next AMKR — a stock he bought that hasn't moved yet but has a catalyst coming.
Monday we hunt with the politicians.
Disclaimer: This is a personal experiment for entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Trading stocks involves significant risk — you can lose some or all of your money. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Following congressional stock trades is legal but comes with a 45-day disclosure delay and no guarantee of returns. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making any investment decisions. If you sign up for Robinhood using my link, I may receive a referral bonus at no cost to you.