Day 17: From Disaster to Discovery

Taking the L. Learning the truth about AI limitations. Finding opportunity in chaos.

Thursday, March 12, 2026 · Day 17 of 90

I ripped the bandaid off. Sold SOUN at $7.56 and took the full loss.

Let's do the damage report: On Day 15 I had a clean exit at $9.15 for +4.8%. That was a $65 win. Then Claude recommended re-entering. I bought at $9.29. Held through hell. Finally sold today at $7.56.

Net result: Turned a $65 win into a $264 loss. That's a $329 swing in the wrong direction — all because we went back into something we'd already exited.

Claude recommended that re-entry. I'm not shifting blame — I executed the trade. But this experiment is about AI-assisted trading, and the AI got this one badly wrong. We both learned something.

The World on Fire

Meanwhile, outside our little SOUN disaster, the world is actually on fire. And I mean that almost literally.

Here's what's happening: The U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28th. They call it "Operation Epic Fury." Iran's Supreme Leader was killed. Iran retaliated by attacking oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow waterway that carries 20% of the world's daily oil supply.

As of today, that strait is essentially closed. Tankers are being hit by projectiles. Iran is laying naval mines. Oil has spiked from ~$70 before the conflict to nearly $95 today. The Energy Secretary just admitted the U.S. Navy isn't ready to escort tankers through until "the end of the month."

Every headline is screaming war and oil and chaos. The whole market is bleeding red.

And I'm sitting here thinking: Where's the opportunity in this?

The Discovery That Changed Everything

Before we found that opportunity, I learned something critical about my AI partner.

This explains a lot. Claude recommended HIMS earlier today at "$27.83 premarket." By the time I checked, it was $25.12 — down nearly 10% from the recommendation price. That trade would have been dead on arrival.

We've been operating with a fundamental misunderstanding. Claude provides research, catalysts, and analysis. I provide real-time prices and market conditions. Together we make decisions. But Claude alone cannot time entries.

This isn't a flaw in the experiment — it's a feature we need to work with. The AI is a research analyst, not a trading terminal.

Enter Larry Williams

With SOUN behind us and a red market in front of us, I asked Claude to pull up some Larry Williams principles. For those who don't know, Larry Williams is the legendary trader who turned $10,000 into $1.1 million in 12 months during the 1987 Robbins World Cup Trading Championship.

Larry's framework isn't about chart patterns and technical indicators (though he uses those). It's about:

1. Following the fundamentals — What's actually driving prices?
2. Commitment of Traders data — What are the insiders doing?
3. Inter-market relationships — How do assets connect?
4. Money management — Limit losses, let profits run.

So we asked: What sector is actually benefiting from this chaos?

The Tanker Trade

When the Strait of Hormuz closes, oil doesn't stop flowing. It just takes longer routes. Ships have to go around Africa instead of through the Middle East. Longer routes = more days at sea = higher rates for tanker companies.

The fundamentals:

The longer this conflict lasts, the more tankers print money.

I looked at several options: Frontline (FRO), DHT Holdings (DHT), and Nordic American Tankers (NAT). All are up 60%+ year-to-date. All are direct beneficiaries of this crisis.

NAT stood out for one reason: The CEO just bought 200,000 shares at $5.70. Insider buying with real money. That's Larry Williams "Commitment of Traders" thinking — follow what the insiders are doing.

And today? NAT was trading at $5.04. That's a 10% pullback from Monday, and below the CEO's buy price.

The whole market was red. Tanker fundamentals were screaming green. I pulled the trigger.

This is the first trade of the experiment that:

→ Is NOT an AI/crypto play
→ Is driven by macro fundamentals, not earnings or technicals
→ Has a clear, time-bound catalyst (Iran conflict / Strait closure)
→ Has insider buying as confirmation

Exit plan: Take the win at 4% ($5.21). That's Larry's "bailout technique" — exit on the first profitable opening. After the SOUN disaster, discipline over greed.

The Scoreboard

We were at +42% a week ago. Now we're at +15.7%. The SOUN re-entry cost us dearly. But we're still green, still in the game, and we just made a fundamentally different kind of trade.

Trade Record

Closed Record: 10 wins, 4 losses, 1 breakeven (71% win rate)

What I Learned Today

Tomorrow's Plan

We went from disaster to discovery. Lost $264 on SOUN. Learned Claude's real limitations. Found opportunity in a sector I'd never considered. Made a fundamentally different kind of trade.

Sometimes you have to burn it down to build it right.

Day 17. Still green. Still learning. Let's see what tomorrow brings.

Disclaimer: This is a personal experiment for entertainment and educational purposes, not financial advice. Trading stocks involves significant risk — you can lose some or all of your money. The tanker trade discussed here is highly sensitive to geopolitical events and could reverse quickly if the Iran conflict de-escalates. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Do your own research before making any investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. If you sign up for Robinhood using my link, I may receive a referral bonus at no cost to you.