Best or Worst IdeaDay 18: The Bailout Technique Works — Now What?
Larry Williams said it: take your profit on the first profitable opening and don't look back. Today I proved the system works.
Then I immediately had to find the next trade. And that's where things got interesting.
NAT Exit: Discipline Pays
Entry: $5.01 → Exit: $5.22
+4.19% | +$48.09
I set a 4% target on Thursday. The stock hit $5.22 this morning. I sold.
No second-guessing. No "let it run." No SOUN repeat.
This was the cleanest trade of the experiment so far. The thesis was simple: Strait of Hormuz closed, oil travels longer routes, tankers make more money per voyage. NAT had already booked rates at $55,000/day versus an $18,000 breakeven. The CEO bought 200,000 shares at $5.70.
Fundamentals. Insider buying. Intermarket relationships. The Larry Williams trifecta.
I got in, set my target, hit my target, got out.
The Search for Trade #16
With $1,205 in the account (up 20.5% from the starting $1,000), I needed to find another play. Claude and I spent the morning digging.
First, the landscape:
| Index | Change |
|---|---|
| Dow Jones | +0.83% |
| S&P 500 | +1.01% |
| Nasdaq | +1.22% |
| VIX | -10.52% |
| Oil (WTI) | ~$95/barrel |
| Brent | ~$102/barrel |
Market's green. VIX is dropping. But oil is still elevated because the Iran situation isn't resolved — allies won't help escort tankers, and the Strait is only partially open.
The obvious play: stay in tankers. Claude found DHT Holdings, another tanker company with VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) that had locked in insane rates.
The DHT vs DTI Debate
We narrowed it down to two candidates:
DHT Holdings ($17.40)
- VLCC fleet (biggest tankers)
- Rates locked at $90-105k/day
- Breakeven: $18,300/day
- 9.73% dividend yield
- Up 59% YTD already
- ~68 shares max
DTI Drilling Tools ($3.65)
- Oilfield services (tool rentals)
- Zacks Rank #1, Momentum A
- Record free cash flow
- 2026 guidance excludes Iran impact
- Eastern Hemisphere +78% YoY
- ~320 shares possible
DHT was the "sure" play. Same thesis that just worked with NAT. Contracts already signed at 5x breakeven rates. Dividend cushion.
But...
DTI was the contrarian swing. Their 2026 guidance was set before the Iran war started. Management literally said on their earnings call that "developments in the Middle East" could influence their outlook. Translation: if oil stays elevated and drilling picks up, they beat guidance — and the market hasn't priced that in yet.
Plus, at $3.65, I could buy over 300 shares. More position flexibility. More room to scale.
The Decision
I asked Claude for the highest-probability quick hit. He said DHT.
I said: "I need a sure quick gain."
He reminded me there's no "sure" in this game. Fair point — I just watched that lesson play out with SOUN.
Bought at: $3.68
Shares: ~327
Target: $3.83 (+4%)
ACTIVE
I went with DTI. Here's my reasoning:
1. The guidance gap. Their conservative 2026 outlook doesn't factor in $100+ oil. If Middle East drilling reactivates or they win new tenders, they crush estimates.
2. The Zacks signal. Rank #1 with Momentum Score A. Earnings estimates revised up 26.7% in 60 days. That's institutional interest.
3. Position sizing. 327 shares at $3.68 gives me more flexibility than 68 shares of DHT at $17.40.
4. The contrarian angle. Everyone's piling into tankers. The oilfield services play is one step removed — same oil thesis, less crowded.
What I'm Watching
Tomorrow: FOMC decision. The Fed could move markets either direction.
Oil: My friend right now. If Brent stays above $100, the drilling thesis holds.
Iran headlines: Any ceasefire talk helps the broader market but could cool the energy trade.
My exit: $3.83. That's +4%. Larry's bailout technique. No greed.
Portfolio Update
Day 18 Status
Trade Record
| Trade | Result | Return |
|---|---|---|
| VNDA | Loss | -4.3% |
| IREN | Win | +4.8% |
| AMKR | Win | +2.8% |
| HOOD | Loss | -11.8% |
| SHOP | Breakeven | ~0% |
| RIVN | Win | +6.0% |
| VNDA (FDA) | Win | +43.5% 🏆 |
| LCID | Win | +0.5% |
| SOUN | Win | +5.7% |
| BBAI | Win | +2.9% |
| SOUN (r2) | Win | +3.2% |
| GNPX | Win | +0.5% |
| SOUN (Thu) | Win | +4.8% |
| SOUN (FOMO) | Loss | -18.6% |
| NAT | Win | +4.19% |
| DTI | Active | — |
Record: 11 wins, 4 losses, 1 breakeven (73% win rate)
Today's Lesson
📝 Discipline compounds
The NAT trade wasn't exciting. Entry at $5.01, exit at $5.22. Four percent. Forty-eight bucks. But it worked exactly as designed. No drama. No "what if I held longer." Just thesis → entry → target → exit.
That's the game now. Small wins that add up. The SOUN disaster taught me what happens when you abandon the system. NAT taught me what happens when you follow it.
"It is your failures, not your successes that kill you." — Larry Williams
Eleven wins don't matter if one loss wipes them out. Protect the downside. Take the singles. Let the home runs come when they come.
DTI target: $3.83. We'll see if day 19 brings another clean exit.